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Election 2006: Area clerks forecast low-to-moderate voter turnout

May 12, 2006|HERB BROCK

Asked about the bounty of candidates on the ballots in Tuesday's election and what that might mean for the turnout, Casey County Clerk Eva Miller zeroed in on one race in one district.

"In just one district, we have 10 candidates for constable, and if everyone of those candidates' family members votes, that would help create a very good turnout not just in the district but for the whole county as well," Miller said with laugh.

Miller is predicting about half of Casey's more than 10,600 registered voters will cast ballots in the election, while the other four area county clerks are offering forecasts ranging from 25 to 43 percent in the elections in their counties.

According to statistics kept by the state Board of Elections, a total of 71,146 people in Boyle, Casey, Garrard, Lincoln and Mercer counties are registered to vote Tuesday: 36,915 Democrats, 31,025 Republicans and 3,206 in other parties or independent.

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Here is a look at the voter registration figures and turnout predictions for the five area counties:

Boyle (25 precincts)

Registration: total, 18,151(Democrats, 11,475; Republicans, 5,623; other, 1,053).

County Clerk Denise Curtsinger's turnout prediction: 43 percent.

"In a local election, 43 percent, I think, would be a good, moderate turnout," said Curtsinger. "When I ran for the first time (for county clerk) in 1998, the turnout was 48 percent and that was a local election and considered a good turnout for a local election."

Curtsinger said she believes the turnout will be good this election because of the "large number of candidates in general, the great voter awareness of the election and candidates and issues, and the big interest in Danville in the City Commission races."

However, she said she was going to predict a turnout higher than 43 percent until she noticed that, as of last Thursday, the number of absentee ballots that had been cast was "not running as high as I had expected."

Casey (15 precincts)

Registration: total, 10,670 (Democrats, 2,010; Republicans, 8,436; other, 224).

County Clerk Eva Miller's prediction: 50 percent.

Miller characterized her forecast as "moderate to heavy" and said she might have gone a little higher but the number of absentee ballots was not as heavy as she anticipated.

Garrard (13 precincts)

Registration: total, 10,749 (Democrats, 3,946; Republicans, 6,227; other, 576).

County Clerk Stacy May's prediction: 30-35 percent.

"We only have two contested races of much interest, and that's the race for county judge-executive and one race for magistrate," she said.

"Because of the absence of a lot of contested races, I expect our turnout numbers will be down a little from where they are for most local elections."

Lincoln (17 precincts)

Registration: total, 16,112 (Democrats, 8,826: Republicans, 6,707; other, 579)

Lincoln County Clerk George Spoonamore's prediction: 25 percent.

Spoonamore said the county would be lucky to hit a 25 percent turnout figure because there are few contested races.

Ironically, his race is one of them. Four Democrats face each other and two Republicans square off in primaries for county clerk.

Mercer (17 precincts)

Registration: total, 15,464 (Democrats, 10,658; Republicans, 4,032; other, 774).

Mercer County Clerk Ronnie Compton's prediction: 35-40 percent.

Compton said his turnout forecast may "appear low but really isn't, considering it's primarily a local election."

The main attraction should be the race for Mercer sheriff, which includes six Democrats in one primary and three Republicans in another, he said.



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